McCain the favorite, Romney falling in New Hampshire

With the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary less than one week
away, Senator John McCain jumped from third place to first in the most recent poll, while
former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney follows close behind. Former mayor Rudy
Giuliani’s support dropped significantly.

In March, McCain and Giuliani were the early front-runners. Following the Republican debate on June 5th, Romney took the lead. In September, Romney maintained his lead with 30 percent of the vote, while Giuliani trailed him with 23 percent of vote and McCain registered third behind his Republican rivals (14%). Today, McCain leads with 37 percent of the vote, while Romney trails him with 31 percent of the vote. Giuliani has now dropped to a distant third behind both candidates (10%).

Although McCain receives more of the vote, many Republican voters think that Romney will ultimately win the nomination. However, 28 percent of likely primary voters are still unsure who will win, suggesting that there is still an air of uncertainty surrounding the Republican primary in New Hampshire.

It is interesting to track each candidate’s favorability rating in order to better understand
how the contest is shaping up over time. In March, Giuliani (66%) and McCain (63%)
had the highest net favorability ratings, with Romney in third place (51%). Following the
debate on June 5th, Romney rose to the top, assuming a five-point lead over Giuliani in
this category. The September poll showed that Romney maintained his lead in net
favorability (64%), with Giuliani (57%) and McCain (54%) following closely behind. The
latest results show that Romney’s (47%) and Giuliani’s (35%) net favorability both fell
around 20 points and now trail that of McCain (74%).